The Top Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bets

Football Betting Lines

01/30/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (The Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Every year around this time I harp on how folks should not wager on a touchdown being the first score of the Super Bowl.

Even though Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson hooked up for a TD pass for the first points in last year's game, a field goal or safety has been the initial score in eight of the last 13 Super Bowls. That means gamblers wagering on a touchdown at almost 2-1 odds (-180) are putting their money on a side that has failed 62% of the time since 1999.

In fact, a field goal or safety has come through in three of this year's five playoff matchups involving New York and New England. Furthermore, Lawrence Tynes' 22-yard field goal early in the third quarter was the first score when these two teams met earlier this season, and his 32-yarder opened the scoring in Super Bowl XLII.

Given all that information, the first prop bet for this year's contest is a field goal or safety as the first score of the game at +150.

I also do not advise people to bet on heavily favored lines but there is one that cannot be avoided and that is taking "passing play" as the first 1st down of the game at -180. With the number of passing attempts expected to take place, especially early on, it's almost a given for this one to ring true.

The last eight Super Bowl MVP's have been either quarterbacks (five) or wide receivers (three) and the two quarterbacks in this game have already won the award with Tom Brady capturing it on two occasions. Only Joe Montana has won it three times.

Brady, as expected, is the favorite at 13-10 odds. Eli Manning is second at 9-4. Although receivers have gained MVP honors 38% of the time since 2004, look for either Brady or Manning to walk off with the trophy, particularly since two of New England's top three pass-catchers are tight ends and it will also be difficult to separate Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz since both have come through in the clutch multiple times this year. (If I had to choose one receiver to snag the award it would be Nicks at 14-1.)

The play here is Manning at the generous odds of 9-4. Remember, he has beaten the Pats two of the last three meetings, and he was awarded the trophy in Super Bowl XLII despite a 56% completion percentage and only 255 yards passing.

Manning has raised his game to another level this year so expect him to outperform those numbers this time around. In addition, New England's current pass defense is a thousand times worse than it was back in 2007. The Patriots finished sixth in the entire NFL that year allowing just 190 yards per game. This season they ranked 31st giving up 294 passing yards per game.

Even though I feel Manning will have a huge game, his posted passing yard total of 310.5 is way too high. For those who believe all the Giants will do on offense is throw the ball, think again. New England's run defense allowed the opposition 4.6 yards per carry this season, good for 14th in the AFC. In order for New York to maintain possession and keep Brady and company off the field, its ground attack must be effective.

In Manning's last three appearances against the Pats, he threw for an average of 250 yards per game, with 255 being the highest total. That number should improve in the Super Bowl but to jump from 250 (or 255) all the way to 311 is asking a lot.

Take under 310.5 at even money.

TOM BRADY AND THE PATRIOTS

Staying with the quarterbacks, another posted number that caught my eye concerns Tom Brady. His total passing attempts is listed at 39.5, with the over and under both at -115.

Brady has thrown 49, 48, and 42 passes the last three matchups against the Giants so it seems as if 39.5 is a tad low, especially when the over and under are equally priced at -115.

Go with over 39.5 at -115 since New York's pass defense is not that effective. The Giants finished 29th in the NFL against the pass allowing 255 yards per game. They also were 12th in the NFC in attempts allowed per game.

Sticking with all the above information, take Brady to have more attempts and completions than Manning. Surprisingly, the odds are not extremely high in either category at (-1/2) -125 and (-1) -115, respectively.

Another solid play concerns wide receiver Wes Welker. The Oklahoma native has had six receptions in each of the last three games. However, he had nine when facing New York earlier this year and 11 in Super Bowl XLII. The odds are a little steep for my liking but Welker should have a big game.

Take over 6.5 receptions at -140.

TV VIEWERSHIP

Last year's Super Bowl became the most watched telecast in television history with over 111 million viewers. The posted total for this year's game is 117 million viewers with the over at -140 and the under at even money.

Go with the under since the overall viewer total has gone up over six million from one year to the next just one time since 1997.

Mysporysbook Football Betting News

<< Marshall's four TD catches lifts AFC over NFC
Honolulu, HI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dolphins wide receiver Brandon Marshall caught a Pro Bowl-record four touchdown passes, as the AFC downed the NFC, 59-41, Sunday at Aloha Stadium. Marshall had six catches for 177 yards -- the secon

<< Clippers rally past Nuggets
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chauncey Billups scored a season-high 32 points as the Los Angeles Clippers rallied in the fourth quarter to take a 109-105 victory over the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. Chris Paul added 25 points, six rebound

<< Morgan leads U.S. over Canada in CONCACAF final
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Morgan scored twice and set up two goals for Abby Wambach, leading the U.S. women's national team to an easy 4-0 win on Sunday over Canada in the final of the CONCACAF Olympic qualifying tournament. The

<< Lakers continue dominance over T'Wolves
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kobe Bryant scored 35 points and pulled down 14 rebounds, as the Los Angeles Lakers recorded their 16th straight victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves with a 106-101 decision. Pau Gasol added 2

<< Mavericks sneak past Spurs in OT
Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Mavericks squandered an 18-point third-quarter lead, but Jason Terry scored four of his 34 points in overtime to lead the Mavericks to a 101-100 victory over the San Antonio Spurs at America

Sixers entertain reeling Magic at WFC >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia 76ers shoot for their third straight win this evening when they continue a seven-game homestand against the Orlando Magic at the Wells Fargo Center. Philly has been incredible at home this season at 10-2 a

Santos downs Tijuana to take Clausura lead >>
Tijuana, Mexico (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cristian Suarez and Juan Rodriguez scored in the second half as Santos downed Tijuana, 3-1, on Sunday to move into sole possession of first place in Mexico's Clausura. Santos entered the week level on po

Missouri visits Texas in pivotal Big 12 affair >>
Austin, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Missouri Tigers and Texas Longhorns square off for the second time this season, when the two meet in a Big 12 Conference clash tonight in Austin. Missouri is an impressive 19-2 on the season, and both losses

Heat finish homestand against hapless Hornets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat are coming off a big win over Chicago and hope that they can keep the momentum going tonight versus the New Orleans Hornets in the finale of a three-game homestand. In what could have been an early playoff p

Lowly Pistons resume road trip in Milwaukee >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The lowly Detroit Pistons will resume a four-game road trip tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks at the Bradley Center. Detroit opened the trek with Saturday's 95-74 loss at Philadelphia, as Greg Monroe chipped in 16 points

Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament odds  
As of February 9, MySportsbook.com has released its coveted 2007 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament betting odds. “March Madness betting ” only a month away, the top ranked Florida Gators are favorite at 7-2 to win it all. The defending champs have not disappointed at all this season and currently have a 22-2 record and are undefeated (9-0) in SEC play. The Gators’ thrive off of their extremely balanced, experienced and versatile attack. All five starters started in last seasons National Championship game. What is most impressive with this group is their balance; the five starters all average between 10.7 and 13.6 PPG. The Gators have been on an absolute roll having won 15 straight by an average of 16.4 PPG.

Right behind the Gators are the 5th ranked UNC Tar Heels at 9-2. The Heels (21-3, 7-2) are absolutely loaded with top notch talent and are as deep as any team in the country. A concern for the Tar Heels might be inexperience. Of their top four scorers/ minute earners, three are freshmen and the other is a sophomore. The rest of the regular season, the Tar Heels play only one team that is currently ranked (Duke). Their remaining opponents do combine for an impressive 107-58 record though.

Other teams that the MySportsbook.com members seem to believe will win it all include the west coasts’ top team #2 UCLA (6-1), #3 OSU behind man-child Greg Oden (8-1), and #4 Wisconsin (10-1) behind their defense which has given up 70+ points only three times all season.

Below is a list of some of the favorites to win the 2007 Men’s NCAA Basketball Championship lines. For the full list of teams and March Madness odds be sure to log onto MySportsbook.com. If you want to use your credit card to bet on college hoops or any other event, MySportsbook.com has the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry.

Arizona 20-1

Butler 20-1

Duke 30-1

Florida 7-2

Georgetown 30-1

Indiana 35-1

Kansas 15-1

Marquette 25-1

Maryland 40-1

Memphis 50-1

Nevada 50-1

UNC 9-2

OSU 8-1

Oregon 30-1

Pittsburgh 15-1

Texas 30-1

Texas A&M 18-1

UCLA 6-1

Wisconsin 10-1

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook betting needs.

Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.