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02/02/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ever get one of those do-not-open-until- the-holidays packages in the mail?
Well, let's just say we will need to revisit this column in about three years.
That's because recruiting analysis is so fickle - an educated, five-foot throw at the dartboard, but a throw nonetheless.
We'll see where Wednesday's national signing day takes us with this year's incoming FCS freshmen, but the top recruits may not be headed where you think.
Oh sure, Montana State might have signed the best incoming quarterback in Dakota Pruko out of Texas (this storyline has worked for the Bobcats before), or maybe it was Floridian Vegas Harley's commitment to Georgia Southern on signing day.
But the main national recruiting sites - ESPN, Rivals and Scout - say the top incoming freshman is going to South Carolina State.
Yes, a MEAC school.
Indeed, the grades and rankings are highest for 6-foot-6, 290-pound offensive tackle Javarius Leamon, who stayed in-state and gave a commitment to South Carolina State over Clemson on national signing day. The big talent out of Woodruff High is the biggest signee for the conference in a long time.
Leamon shares the top grade from ESPN with a player who didn't even sign a national letter of intent. Well, the Ivy League doesn't have such agreements, and, yes, Penn has a verbal commitment from Los Angeles Beverly Hills wide receiver Cameron Countryman, who ESPN ranks alongside Leamon with 79 scores each.
Up next were Pruko and Harley with 78s - top signees for top programs.
Leamon earned the top rating from Rivals - a 5.8 - and was followed by a signee from a Southland Conference program.
It wasn't national finalist Sam Houston State, either. How about struggling Southeastern Louisiana, which plucked linebacker Juwaan Rogers and his 5.7 rating out of Louisiana. He also gave his commitment on signing day.
Next up with 5.6s each were Harley, wide receivers Dalis Bruce (Eastern Washington) and Tray Rabon (Grambling State), quarterback Lamontiez Ivy (Jackson State), and running backs D.J. Abnar (Liberty), R.J. Robinson (Norfolk State) and Daniel Taylor (Northwestern State).
That's not a bad list of FCS programs, but not necessarily the cream of the national crop, either.
Scout? It gave Matt Barnett the nation's No. 16 rating at fullback and he signed with Wagner. Stud center prospect Austin Stock, No. 24 nationally, has given a verbal commitment to Columbia.
So who knows how the recruiting grades will turn out in the long run.
Maybe a lot of these players will soon be coming to an All-America team near you.
<< Swansea's Bodde suffers new injury
Swansea, Wales (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Swansea City midfielder Ferrie Bodde picked
up a new knee injury Wednesday and could face a longer spell on the sidelines.
Bodde has not played for Swansea since February of 2010, and has made just 59
appe
<< Flames' Stempniak sidelined with high ankle sprain
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Calgary Flames forward Lee Stempniak will miss
approximately six weeks of action due to a high ankle sprain.
Stempniak left Tuesday's game against the Red Wings due to the injury.
In 51 games this season, St
<< Nationals pick up Edwin Jackson
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Nationals have agreed to
terms with veteran starter Edwin Jackson on a one-year contract.
The deal is contingent upon Jackson passing a physical.
Jackson, 28, entered the majors in 2
<< Earthquakes sign Colombian Tressor Moreno
San Jose, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Earthquakes signed Colombian
midfielder Tressor Moreno on Thursday, pending receipt of his P-1 visa.
Moreno, 33, has played for clubs in Colombia, France, Chile, Mexico and Peru,
and played
Pletcher goes for another Davis win >>
Oldsmar, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trainer Todd Pletcher has been dominating the
Sam F. Davis Stakes in recent years and has another opportunity to win the
event with its 32nd renewal on Saturday. The $250,000 stakes, with a field of
11 thre
Youzhny rolls; Bogomolov ousted in Zagreb >>
Zagreb, Croatia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mikhail Youzhny cruised into the
quarterfinals of the Zagreb Indoors tournament Thursday, while fellow Russian
Alex Bogomolov was eliminated by Slovakia's Lukas Lacko.
A pair of past Zagreb w
Colts name Manusky defensive coordinator >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indianapolis Colts have hired Greg
Manusky as defensive coordinator.
The Colts named Bruce Arians offensive coordinator earlier this week.
Manusky was the defensive coordinator of the San Diego
Chievo hands struggling Novara another loss >>
Novara, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sergio Pellissier and Cyril Thereau scored on
each side of halftime as Chievo downed struggling Novara, 2-1, on Thursday in
Serie A.
Pellissier opened the scoring on 33 minutes and Thereau added a second goa
Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"
A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."
Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.
In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.
"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."
Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.
But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"
Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.
This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.
Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.
In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.
No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.
And that's all any bettor can ask for.
To visit this sports book go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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